There's no question now but that Donald Trump will be President through 2024. That really doesn't have much to do with the voters, or how they will react to whomever the eventual Democratic candidate is. It has everything to do with the man himself, and how he conducts his affairs.
To begin, try this: Close your eyes, and imagine that it's January 20, 2021. Inauguration Day. Donald Trump sits idly by, watching Joe Biden take the oath of office. He then congratulates President Biden, and hops on Marine 1 to start back to New York City.
Can't imagine that? Then you're beginning to get a grip on why Trump will still be our President for another term.
Through gaslighting, lying, false accusations, and hate-based rhetoric, President Trump has managed to convince a large segment of the American voting public that
(a) Hillary Clinton conspired with the Russians during the 2016 campaign
(b) The Obama administration organized a spying effort against the 2016 Trump campaign
(c) The nefarious 'deep state' actors who perpetrated these crimes are still in place in many areas of the Intelligence Community
(d) The Department of Justice in general and the FBI in particular are political bodies, and cannot be trusted to investigate anything about the President or his family
Additionally, he has installed an obvious shill at the head of the Department of Justice, and has removed every law enforcement official who has shown any inclination to stand up to him. And the Department of Homeland Security, who is supposed to be helping state and local officials protect their election systems, is now being run directly from the Whiter House. The Federal Court system, which is one of the expected avenues of relief for the citizens, has been packed with Trump sycophants who in many cases are questionably competent to be in the job. And the Supreme Court has a strong majority of conservative ideologues, more committed to the agenda of the extreme right than justice in our nation. The Senate is actually a body of Trump enablers, who will find every excuse possible to support the President and make sure his wishes are met.
In short, there is no body of the U.S. Government who will stand up to the President if he hijacks the next election. And hijack it he will. He has already begun. And we can already see a lot of his tactics being rolled out.
- The administration will not cooperate with the House of Representatives on any matter. In many cases, they have told House committees to go pound sand. In other cases, they have simply refused to comply with legal, legitimate requests from the House (Mnuchin / Tax Returns). There is no reason to think this behavior will change when those committees start looking into Russian interference in the 2020 election. Trump himself has never acknowledged that the Russians had any role in the 2016 election, and that will be his position regardless of what happens going forward. So if you thought the House was going to be the check on the President, you obviously assumed that the President was going to follow the law. He won't.
- The Department of Justice will not pursue any new investigation of Trump, his family, or his administration. The talking heads have been suggesting that Trump can't do anything about the Southern District of New York, but it's not clear why they think that. SDNY is as much a part of the Justice Department as any other Federal Prosecutor's office. If Trump tells Barr to shut down an investigation, the legality of the request will not be an issue.
- DHS is doing essentially nothing about election security. To her credit, Kjerstin Nielsen tried several times to organize a cross-agency response to election hacking, but was always stymied by, among others, White House staff. There is absolutely no reason to think any of that will change. Russia will enjoy a free hand to manipulate our elections and there will be no official response. The Intelligence Community may try to wave their arms, but they really don't have any ability to do anything about it (legally).
When Trump eventually loses at the ballot box, an entire army of lawyers working for the administration and for Trump personally will be loosed on the Federal Courts to challenge everything - big or small, important or unimportant. Remember that Trump has shown us that the real value in legal action is time. And if he can stir up enough legal trouble post-election, it will become difficult for the Electoral College to meet and do its work. Remember that there are dozens (98 as of this writing) of new Federal Judges that were nominated by Trump and approved through Mitch McConnell's kangaroo Senate. They are all on standby, waiting to repay the favor.
Finally, in the midst of all the legal wrangling, Trump and his minions will take to the airwaves to sell the story that it's really the Democrats who tried to steal the election. They will make absurd accusations, bolstered by ridiculous lies, but there will be enough acceptance of that, and enough Trump supporters, to put the entire succession process into disarray.
So if you think Trump will participate in some sort of peaceful transition in 2021, think again. The fix is in.
